CLIMATE CHANGE

7.0 INDIA'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

India has experienced a dramatic growth in fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and the data compiled by various agencies shows an increase of nearly 5.9% since 1950. At present, India is rated as the 6th largest contributor of CO2 emissions and China the 2nd. However, our per capita CO2 of 0.93t per annum is well below the world average of 3.87t per annum. Fossil fuel emissions in India continue to result largely from coal burning with India being the largest producer of coal in the world. India is highly vulnerable to climate change as its economy is heavily reliant on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry. The vast low lying and densely populated coastline is susceptible to rise in sea level.

The energy sector is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions in India. The national inventory of greenhouse gases under ALGAS (Asia-Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy) project (funded by the Asian Development Bank, Global Environment Facility and United Nations Development Program) indicates that 55% of the total national emissions come from energy sector. These include emissions from road transport, burning of traditional bio-mass fuels, coal mining, and fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas. Agriculture sector constitutes the next major contributor, accounting for nearly 34%. The emissions under this sector include those from enteric fermentation in domestic animals, manure management, rice cultivation, and burning of agriculture residues. Emissions from Industrial sector mainly came from cement production. India is the fourth largest producer of cement after China, Japan and the United States. The ALGAS study presents the latest set of projections of greenhouse gas emissions from India.

The Indian Cement Industry with an annual production of 99 million metric tonne (mmt) of cement contributes about 89 mmt of CO2 emission @ 0.9 mt of CO2/mt of cement produced. A comparative CO2 emission levels in some countries are given below:

Table 3.0 : CO2 emissions/mt of Cement Production

The basic reason for lower CO2 emission per tonne of cement in Japan and European countries is the prominence of blended cements. CO2 is predominantly generated during clinker stage and therefore production of higher tonnage of cement (through blended cement) from same quantity of clinker would reduce the CO2/tonne of cement. The Report of the Working Group on Cement Industry, commissioned by the Planning Commission, suggests a reduction of CO2 emission level in the next five years (2002-2007) to about 80 mmt out of the projected cement production of 158.56 mmt (i.e CO2 emission of 0.50/ mt of cement) by adopting the following measures :

· Increased production of blended cements and promotion of its use in large quantities.
· Optimising the pyro-processing system and avennues for reduction in electrical power consumption.
· Increased afforestation and sink potential for CO2.
· Recovery of waste heat for cogeneration of power.
· Optimising particle size distribution of fine coal.
· Use of Alternate fuel(Oil, gas)/Waste derived fuel.
· Increased use of marginal grade limestone.
· Manufacture of reactive belite cement.

It is now expected that going by the present trend, carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector for India may be ten times greater than the 1990 level, by the year 2010. Though relatively small in magnitude, forestry and land use emissions of methane are also expected to grow rapidly. On the other hand, agricultural emissions of methane accounting for 32% of the present global warming potential, are expected to grow slowly.

Table 4.0: India's Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 1990 (Gg)

a. CO2 emissions from biomass burning are not included in the national totals.
b. CH4 emissions according to IPCC 1996 methodology
c. CO2 equivalents are based on global warming potentials (GWPs) of 21 for CH4
and310 for N2O. NOx and CO are not included, since GWPs have not been developed
for these gases. Bunker fuel emissions are not included in the national total.
d. NOx and CO emissions are computed for the transport sector.

[Source: Asia least-cost Greenhouse gas abatement strategy, Asian Development Bank]

Table 5.0 : Global total carbon emissions by region, reference case, [1990-2015]

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual,1995; Annual Energy Outlook 1997.