CLIMATE CHANGE

5.0 SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Green house gases are emitted by virtually all economic sectors, including residential and commercial energy use, industrial processes, electricity generation, agriculture, and forestry. The energy sector is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions in India. The carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (of 1990 reference year emission inventory) from this sector were 565,245 Gg, amounting to nearly 55% of the total national emissions of GHGs. These included emissions from road transport, burning of traditional biomass fuels, coal mining and fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas. The second major contribution came from the agriculture sector, constituting around 34% of the total emissions, including emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic animals, manure management, rice cultivation, and burning of agriculture residues. Emissions from industrial processes came mainly from cement production.

It is widely believed that, despite existing international commitments to curtail growth in greenhouse gas emissions, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion by 2015 may be 61% higher than in 1990. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) under a reference scenario, estimated that, emissions would grow from 6,012 mmtc (million metric ton of carbon) in 1990 to 9,704 mmtc in 2015 [Ref.: International Energy Outlook 1997]. Still faster economic growth might inflate annual emissions to 11,292 mmtc in 2015, which may be therefore 87% higher than in 1990. The EIA report clearly illustrates the failure of the industrialized nations to meet their initial commitment to limit emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels. Under the reference scenario, emissions from industrialized nations stood at 15% higher than in 1990 level. And by 2015, emissions from industrialized nations might reach 4,074 mmtc, a 36% increase over 1990 level. According to the EIA, industrialized nations "are not on a path to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use".

Further, even if industrialized nations were to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels or reduce them further by 2015, the EIA expects global carbon emissions to increase substantially. This will result mainly from growth in fossil fuel use outside industrialized nations, from developing countries and the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The report suggest that increase in carbon emissions in non-industrial regions is dominated by dramatic growth in fossil fuel demand in Asia, especially India and China. Increased coal demand being an important contributor to the region's carbon emissions. Relative to petroleum and natural gas, combustion of coal emits 1.5 to 2.0 times more carbon per unit of energy released. And coal consumption would increase rapidly. Carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion in the developing countries of Asia is expect to grow by a whooping 157% from 1990 level by 2015.

Graph1.0: Global Carbon Emission from Fossil Fuels, 1990-2015. (Source: US Energy Information Administration)